Modelling and forecasting the demand for jet fuel and bio-based jet fuel in Turkey till 2023

Abstract

Turkey's ambitious Vision 2023 agenda foresees a significant growth in the country's aviation sector. However, forecasts for Turkey's jet fuel demand in the view of Vision 2023 are not available in the published literature. Also, there is no information about the country's potential bio-based jet fuel demand after 2020, when it is plausible to become a mandatory supplement to kerosene. As a result, for the first time in this study, semi-empirical models were generated to provide Turkey's jet fuel and bio-based jet fuel forecasts based on the country's Vision 2023 energy targets. These models were generated taking current market dynamics, business as usual, and the possibility of enhanced economic growth for Turkey based on Vision 2023 energy and economic targets. As a result, Turkey's jet fuel demand in 2023 was estimated at between 4.230 and 7.880 billion litres. Also, it was calculated that Turkey could need up to 0.307 billion litres of bio-based jet fuel in 2023, if its consumption becomes mandatory after 2020. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.