Predictive modeling of Türkiye's GHG emissions: Insights for sustainable energy transition and climate action

Abstract

Addressing the global imperative for a sustainable energy future, this study introduces and applies novel gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita-based predictive models (Models-L, -A, -Min, and -Max) to forecast T & uuml;rkiye's total and sectoral greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2029. The projections reveal a broad range for T & uuml;rkiye's total GHG emissions in 2029, from 769 Mt CO2 equivalent (Model-L) to 1,905 Mt CO2 equivalent (Model-Max), with Model-L demonstrating the strongest fit for historical data. Significantly, the results indicate that T & uuml;rkiye's GHG emissions in 2030 are likely to surpass the revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of 695 Mt CO2 equivalent, potentially reaching approximately 800 Mt CO2 equivalent. Detailed sectoral forecasts for 2029 confirm the energy sector as the predominant emitter, with projected emissions from 591 Mt (Model-L) to 1,355 Mt (Model-Max). This research underscores the urgent necessity for robust policy interventions, the deployment of innovative energy technologies, and a strengthened role for the private sector to bridge this emissions gap. Such strategic actions are crucial for aligning T & uuml;rkiye's energy system development with its climate commitments and advancing United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 13 (Climate Action).