Effects of Ground Motion Prediction Models on the Performance of Earthquake Damage and Loss Estimation Systems: February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş Earthquake

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of ground motion prediction models (GMPE) on the performance of Earthquake Damage and Loss Estimation Systems (EDLES), which play a crucial role in disaster management. In the study, seismic hazard and risk analyses were performed using data of the February 6 Kahramanmaraş (Pazarcik) earthquake, and the analysis results were updated with the data of strong ground motion stations. Four different globally accepted GMPEs, HAZUS classification systems and fragility curves, were preferred in the analyses. The results of the analyses are examined from two different perspectives: the impact of GMPE selection and the effects of using updated model. It was found that the choice of GMPE significantly influences the seismic hazard and risk assessments. In the comparison made by averaging the GMPE models, the updated model was found to more accurately predict the number of severely damaged and collapsed buildings defined as requiring emergency response by approximately 10% and 15%, respectively. © 2024 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.