Vision 2035: A forecasting framework for household final energy consumption in Türkiye

Abstract

This study develops per capita-based forecasting models to estimate household final energy consumption (FEC) in T & uuml;rkiye from 2024 to 2035. The models demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, aligning with historical data, the 2022 National Energy Plan (NEP) targets, and key statistical metrics. The most reliable scenario assumes per capita household FEC will increase at a rate similar to Spain's historical trend (2003-2023), projecting FEC to reach 1,110,000 TJ in 2025, 1,200,000 TJ in 2030, and 1,285,000 TJ in 2035. The 2035 forecast achieves a 99.9% match with the official NEP target, underscoring its robustness. The findings indicate a growing demand for household energy, driven by population growth and economic expansion, with no expected supply-demand imbalances. Urbanization, lifestyle changes, and housing conditions significantly influence energy use. This methodology offers a reliable foundation for energy policy, aiding researchers and policymakers in designing sustainable strategies to enhance energy efficiency and ensure long-term resource management in T & uuml;rkiye.