Is the global economy on the verge of re-globalization?

Abstract

Through a series of liberalization initiatives, trade patterns and industrial systems have been largely globalized since the year 1990. Starting with the 2008 global financial crisis, we have witnessed severe disruptions in GVC activities such as the European currency crisis, the trade war between the United States and China, Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. We discuss the future of the global economy and infer some conclusions by observing the data and the effects of previous significant occasions on trade flows. Although there are decreasing trends in the growth of trade flows, this may not mean a decrease in global trade in the long run. Instead of a de-globalization, it may be possible to observe a re-globalization by changing the power balances with the increasing role of developing nations, the intensities of complex and simple GVC activities, and the combinations of production factors with the rise of machines. © 2023 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.