The Influence of Particulate Matter Concentration on Health Diseases in Southeastern Türkiye: Source Regions and Associated Synoptic Conditions

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of PM<inf>10</inf> concentrations on asthma diagnoses. A Generalized Additive Model with a quasi-Poisson link was constructed to assess the effect of PM<inf>10</inf> concentrations on asthma for different age groups (child: 15- 34, adult: 35- 64, elderly >64 yr). The lag effects of PM<inf>10</inf> concentrations were investigated using the Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model. During the 2014-2018 period, asthma diagnoses due to PM<inf>10</inf> exposure were most frequently observed in adults. A 10 ?g/m3 increase in PM<inf>10</inf> was found to be significant between lag0 and lag2. The highest value was observed at lag0 with an RR of 1.0027 (95% CI: 1.001- 1.004). When examining relative risk values by age, a significant association was determined between lag0 and lag3, with the highest values observed in the adult age group (RR: 1.0029, 95% CI: 1.0010- 1.0048) and in elderly people (>64 yr, RR: 1.0028, 95% CI: 1.0029- 1.0053). From the external factors, Saharan originated dust significantly contributes to high PM<inf>10</inf> concentrations, from the HYSPLIT backward trajectory results. The role of surface low over Italy and Cyprus, and strong southerly winds at the mid-level of the atmosphere play significant role in transferring suspended dust particles to southeastern of Türkiye. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.