Sustainable biodiesel production: Forecasting agricultural waste utilization in Türkiye's oilseed industry

Abstract

This study developed and validated semi-empirical models to forecast T & uuml;rkiye's oilseed production, consumption, waste generation, and biodiesel potential through 2040, utilizing 22 years of historical data and population projections. The models, assessed through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R2), residual analysis, and 95 % confidence intervals (CI), projected significant increases in oilseed production and waste, with sunflower identified as a key feedstock for biodiesel. By 2040, the economic value of biodiesel from oilseed waste is estimated at 75.3 million US$, highlighting its economic and environmental benefits. While the models demonstrated robust overall accuracy, limitations included a low R2 for soybean consumption and unquantified uncertainty in biodiesel potential due to data scarcity. The study underscores the importance of sustainable waste management and biodiesel production for energy security, offering a forecasting framework for T & uuml;rkiye's agricultural sector. Future research should focus on refining soybean forecasts, incorporating empirical biodiesel data, and exploring the impacts of key controlling factors, emphasizing collaboration with industry and policymakers for practical applications.